Giants’ Rest Edge and Packers’ Passing Depth Shape Week 9 Matchups

The Week 9 matchup picture turns on two different edges: New York faces a Philadelphia offense unsettled at quarterback, while Green Bay arrives with more rest and healthier passing options than New England. Those advantages don’t guarantee either result, but they give both games a clear tactical hinge.

New York can pressure Philadelphia’s unsettled offense

Philadelphia’s immediate challenge is Joe Milton’s first NFL start. The Eagles moved on from Tanner McKee after a difficult stretch at quarterback and will turn to Milton, who has logged 59 career dropbacks since New England selected him in the sixth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. His most extensive work came in relief during the 2024 season finale against Buffalo, where he played well, but that was a different assignment from leading an offense from the opening snap.

Milton has also had little time to settle in with Philadelphia. The team added him from Dallas’ practice squad on October 16, so his preparation with the Eagles has been brief. The supporting cast could make that adjustment harder: DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks and Saquon Barkley all missed the start of the week’s practices. Barkley played the previous game and may simply be managing his workload, while Smith and Wicks have each missed the last two games.

The uncertainty matters because Philadelphia hasn’t established a reliable fallback plan on the ground. The Eagles rank 28th in expected points added (EPA) per designed rush. If the passing game struggles to find rhythm, the run game hasn’t offered much evidence that it can take over.

The quarterback numbers help explain why the Eagles are searching for a spark. Among 40 passers with at least 40 attempts, Jalen Hurts ranked 32nd in EPA per play. McKee was tied for 36th, ahead of only Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield in that group. Milton’s limited experience makes his ceiling difficult to judge, but Philadelphia is asking him to step into an offense with several unsettled pieces.

New York’s defense presents a more even test than its overall season record might suggest. The Giants rank 17th in scoring defense at 23.0 points per game, 16th in points allowed per drive at 2.04, and tied for 15th in defensive EPA per play. They’re also tied for 13th in yards allowed per play at 5.3 and rank 15th in defensive success rate. That profile gives them a reasonable chance to make Milton sustain drives instead of relying on quick strikes.

McCarthy and Nabers give the Giants a route forward

The Giants have questions of their own, but J.J. McCarthy has brought a more promising direction since entering the Week 6 game in the fourth quarter. Among quarterbacks with at least 40 attempts this season, he ranks 14th in EPA per play. That’s a small sample, and there’s some risk that his early efficiency fades, but the recent production gives New York a credible passing option.

McCarthy’s most productive connection has been Malik Nabers. The receiver has cleared 110 yards in four straight games, showing the high-end impact he had before knee surgery last season. That run gives the Giants a clear focal point against a Philadelphia defense that has been vulnerable across several measures: it ranks 22nd in points allowed per game at 25.3, 24th in points allowed per drive at 2.32, and tied for 22nd in defensive EPA per play. The Eagles are also tied for 22nd in yards allowed per play at 5.6 and tied for 21st in defensive success rate.

New York comes off its bye, giving it a rest advantage. Philadelphia has lost six straight, including three consecutive defeats by more than three points and five of those six by more than three. The Giants’ combination of fresher legs, a productive McCarthy-to-Nabers connection and a steadier defense gives them a plausible path to control the game. The central question is whether McCarthy can keep the offense efficient against a defense that has allowed opponents to stay on schedule.

Green Bay’s rest and receiver availability matter

Green Bay and New England look closer on paper. Drake Maye ranks eighth in EPA per play among 31 qualified quarterbacks this season; Jordan Love ranks 12th. The Packers have a rest edge after beating Carolina 27-19 on Thursday night, while New England is coming off a 24-19 win over Miami in which it recovered from a 13-3 halftime deficit.

The bigger separation may be in the passing options around those quarterbacks. Love has Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft available. New England’s receiving group is less settled. A.J. Brown missed Sunday’s game and didn’t practice to begin the week; Hunter Henry left the previous contest with a foot injury and also sat out the opening practice. Romeo Doubs is on injured reserve, while Mack Hollins had his 21-day practice window opened and started the week with limited participation.

Maye showed he can produce despite those constraints against Miami, but the matchup changes sharply against Green Bay. The Dolphins rank 31st in pass defense EPA per dropback; the Packers rank 10th. New England may need Maye to create answers with a less experienced or less familiar group of targets, and Green Bay’s stronger pass defense raises the difficulty of that task.

The run game offers New England a potential counter, though the numbers don’t point to a major mismatch. Green Bay ranks 29th in EPA per designed rush, but the Patriots are 22nd in that category. Josh Jacobs returned in Week 7 after being on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, giving the Packers a reason to hope their own rushing efficiency improves. For New England, the challenge is whether its ground game can exploit Green Bay’s weakness enough to ease the burden on Maye.

New England beat Miami on the road, but that result came against a pass defense ranked near the bottom of the league. This week’s opponent is substantially tougher through the air, while Green Bay has more rest and a fuller set of leading targets. If the Packers protect Love and make New England defend the whole field, their preparation and personnel advantages could shape a game that otherwise looks close at quarterback.

Week 9 resources

• NFL Spreads, Totals, & Moneylines
• NFL Props: Lines & Odds
• NFL Weather Forecast & Potential Impact
• NFL Implied Team Totals
• NFL Matchups