Toney’s Absence Puts Miami’s Explosiveness to the Test Against Notre Dame

Malachi Toney’s absence could reshape the matchup between Miami and Notre Dame. The Hurricanes have been one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, but they’ll be without their leading downfield threat against an Irish defense that has allowed the country’s lowest rate of explosive plays. That shifts the pressure onto Miami’s other receivers and makes Notre Dame’s ability to sustain its own quick passing game a central question.

Miami needs new answers in the passing game

Coordinator Shannon Dawson has built a pass-heavy offense around Toney’s ability to win targets at every depth. Toney is out for at least a few weeks with an ankle injury, leaving Cooper Barkate as Miami’s leading receiving option. Barkate brings useful experience: he led Darian Mensah in receiving at Duke last year. But his profile differs from Toney’s, especially on deeper throws.

Toney drew 37% of Miami’s targets overall and 42% in the first half of games. On passes traveling at least 10 yards downfield, he commanded a 40% target share and caught 88% of his catchable targets, according to Sports Info Solutions. Barkate has caught 64% of his catchable targets at that depth this season, close to his 67% rate with Mensah at Duke. The numbers point to a likely reduction in Miami’s ability to stretch the field.

That could matter against a defense built to prevent big gains. Miami has produced a gain of at least 20 yards on 9.5% of its plays, the third-highest rate in the country. Toney has accounted for 34% of those explosive plays. Notre Dame, meanwhile, has allowed explosive plays at the nation’s lowest rate. Without Toney, the Hurricanes may have to work harder for the chunk gains that have fueled their offense.

The change in receiver roles also affects the matchup with cornerback Leonard Moore. He has allowed six receptions for 66 yards across 166 coverage snaps, per Sports Info Solutions, and has lined up outside on 75% of those snaps. Toney has worked from the slot on 72% of his plays, making a direct matchup with Moore less likely. Barkate has played in the slot on only 17% of his snaps this season and 19% last year, so he could see Moore more often.

If the passing game stalls, Miami can turn to Mark Fletcher Jr. and Javian Mallory. Both are downhill runners, and 58% of their carries go between the tackles—a route into the strength of Notre Dame’s defense. The Irish allow just 3.0 yards per attempt on runs up the middle, the fourth-lowest rate nationally, and stop runners for zero or negative yards on 20% of those attempts.

The broader efficiency numbers also favor Notre Dame after contact. Miami ranks 83rd in yards before contact, while the Irish rank 68th in yards before contact allowed. Miami is 32nd in yards after contact; Notre Dame is third in yards after contact allowed. The Hurricanes’ offensive line lost important players to the NFL last offseason, and Miami backs have gained at least three yards before contact on just 27% of carries. Miami has still generated runs of 10 or more yards at the 18th-highest rate, but Notre Dame ranks second in preventing that kind of gain. A less threatening passing game could let the Irish commit even more attention to the run.

Notre Dame can test Miami’s short-pass defense

Mike Denbrock’s Notre Dame offense is balanced, though the matchup could reward a heavier emphasis on passing. The Irish rank 14th in pressure rate allowed, while Miami ranks 73rd in pressure generated. Notre Dame quarterbacks have released the ball in under 2.5 seconds on 59% of dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the country. They have faced pressure on only 7.3% of those quick-release plays, according to Pro Football Focus.

Miami has struggled to disrupt that kind of rhythm. Against throws released in under 2.5 seconds, the Hurricanes have allowed a 75% completion rate, which ranks 103rd, and 6.4 yards per attempt. Their pressure rate on those plays is 15%, ranking 51st. North Carolina showed how that weakness can be attacked last week, completing 16 of 18 quick passes for 10.6 yards per attempt and three touchdowns.

Notre Dame’s recent offensive struggles against BYU offer a caution against reading too much into one performance. BYU is particularly effective against quick throws, allowing 4.6 yards per attempt, best in the country, and a 62% completion rate, seventh-best. Miami’s results against short passes give the Irish a different kind of opportunity. On throws five or fewer yards downfield, the Hurricanes allow 7.2 yards per reception, ranking 100th. Missed tackles are part of the problem: Miami misses one every 3.9 receptions, the fifth-highest rate nationally.

Notre Dame can also challenge Miami beyond the short game. Outside the red zone, 28% of the Irish’s passes travel at least 15 yards downfield, the 22nd-highest share. Miami has allowed a 47% completion rate on those throws, ranking 94th. The Hurricanes ranked 37th in that measure last season, adding to the concern that their coverage against deeper passes has slipped.

The Irish may find fewer openings if they lean on the run. Notre Dame ranks 22nd in yards before contact, but Miami ranks 24th in yards before contact allowed. After contact, Notre Dame ranks 50th and Miami 28th in yards allowed. The Irish have also struggled to replace the explosive backfield threats of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price: Notre Dame has gained at least 10 yards on just 10.3% of carries, 116th in the nation. Miami allows three or more yards before contact at the fourth-lowest rate and ranks 37th in missed tackle rate against the run.

That points toward Denbrock using the pass to put pressure on Miami’s weaker spots. The larger matchup question is whether the Irish can make those quick completions count after the catch—and whether Miami can find enough explosive plays without Toney to keep pace. Miami coach Mario Cristobal’s road record against strong opponents adds another layer: he is 1-5 at Miami against teams that finished in the AP Top 25, and 3-15 as a head coach. With Toney out and Notre Dame positioned to attack both short and deep, Miami’s supporting cast will have to deliver for the Hurricanes to keep their offense at full speed.