Jaguars vs. Ravens Week 9 Fantasy Preview: Jacksonville’s Edge Meets Baltimore’s QB Crisis

Jacksonville’s biggest fantasy complication is that its offense may not need four quarters to win. The Jaguars have the NFL’s best point differential at +85 and have outscored opponents 110-40 in first halves. Baltimore, meanwhile, has been outscored 134-47 after halftime, the league’s widest second-half deficit. That split puts a ceiling on some Jaguars who could otherwise be strong starts—and makes the Ravens’ fragile quarterback situation even harder to overlook.

The Jaguars are favored by 9 points, with an implied total of 25.75. Baltimore’s implied total is 16.75. Jacksonville averages 28 points per game, fifth in the league, and allows 15.9, second-best. The Ravens score 22.4 per game and allow 25.4. The teams run at similar rates: Jacksonville at 48.3% and Baltimore at 48.0%. But the Jaguars’ passing game has been more explosive, with 33.2% of its pass plays gaining at least 10 yards, the league’s highest rate. Baltimore has allowed a gain of that size on 29.9% of opposing pass plays, 29th.

Jacksonville has also scored 55 points off takeaways, tied for the league lead. Baltimore’s offense has struggled recently, ranking 30th in offensive EPA over the past four weeks at -37.9. That combination points toward a game in which the Jaguars can build a lead, then manage it. Here’s the catch for fantasy managers: the most productive Jacksonville players may help create the very game script that limits their late-game volume.

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Quarterbacks: Lawrence has efficiency; Baltimore has uncertainty

Trevor Lawrence needed only 14 attempts in Jacksonville’s latest blowout, completing 10 for 140 yards and three touchdowns. His 15.0 yards per attempt helped him finish QB12 with 19.4 fantasy points. Lawrence leads the NFL in touchdown rate at 8.6% and in the share of passes resulting in a first down or touchdown at 40.4%.

His production has been concentrated before the fourth quarter. Lawrence ranks QB5 in fantasy points per game through three quarters, at 16.1, and leads all quarterbacks in passing points per dropback at 0.57. In the fourth quarter, though, he ranks QB27 at 3.0 points per game while averaging a league-low 5.1 dropbacks. He has been removed before the final quarter twice and had just one fourth-quarter dropback in another game.

That makes Lawrence a back-end QB1, with a higher ceiling if Baltimore keeps the game close enough to demand more passing. The Ravens have conceded useful fantasy outings to every viable quarterback they’ve faced: Tyler Shough scored 22.4 points, Dak Prescott 18.9, Joe Burrow 28.9 and Josh Allen 26.6. Burrow and Allen combined for six passing touchdowns over the past two weeks. Both found their biggest success after halftime, when Baltimore’s defense faltered. Burrow went from 6-of-12 for 43 yards and no touchdowns in the first half of Week 7 to 16-of-18 for 249 yards and four touchdowns after the break. Allen followed a first half of 8-of-19 for 112 yards and an interception with a second half of 13-of-15 for 177 yards and two scores.

Joe Fagnano is in line for his first NFL start, with Baltimore short on healthy quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson returned Sunday after last playing in Week 3, then injured his thumb on his first play. Tyler Huntley took 10 snaps before a toe injury that is expected to sideline him for multiple weeks. Fagnano, an undrafted rookie, completed 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards, threw an interception, took three sacks and fumbled in his first NFL action. His 4.3 yards per attempt and 12.5% sack rate offer little reason for optimism.

With Jackson off the field this season, Baltimore has averaged 4.6 yards per play, a figure that would rank 30th. Fagnano also suffered an ankle injury late Sunday, though coach Jesse Minter said he would start Thursday. The team added Austin Reed to its practice squad; Reed has not thrown an NFL pass. He completed 56.3% of his UFL passes at 6.2 yards per attempt this past season, with 21 touchdowns. Baltimore could still look for another option, but the short turnaround leaves little time.

For now, Fagnano is a low-end QB2, suitable only when a two-quarterback lineup needs a starter. Jacksonville allows 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 26th in the league, but has limited passing touchdowns to a 3.3% rate, fourth-best. Its only QB1 scoring weeks allowed have come from Burrow and C.J. Stroud. The Jaguars rank sixth in pressure rate at 39.2%; Baltimore ranks 26th in pressure rate allowed at 40.9%. That is a difficult setup for a rookie making his first start.

Running backs: Tuten’s health and Henry’s workload

Bhayshul Tuten broke out with a career-high 159 yards from scrimmage on 18 touches. He ripped off a 39-yard rushing touchdown to put Jacksonville ahead 21-0, then scored on a 25-yard screen to make it 35-7 in the third quarter. It was his third receiving touchdown in two games. Chris Rodriguez added 58 yards and a touchdown on seven touches, but Tuten controlled the backfield early: he played 65.6% of first-half snaps and took 13 of 15 backfield touches.

The underlying rushing work supports the surge. Tuten’s 40.9% success rate ranks 13th despite just 0.66 yards before contact per carry, 37th. He’s generated 3.81 yards after contact per rush, fifth, and forced 31 missed tackles as a runner, fourth-most in the league. But a foot injury from the first quarter Sunday complicates his outlook. He finished that game productively but did not practice heading into Thursday, and Jacksonville is a heavy favorite on a short week. Tuten profiles as a boom-or-bust RB2, with the possibility of limited work or aggravation adding risk. Rodriguez moves into RB3/FLEX consideration if a lineup needs another back.

Baltimore has defended the run well, allowing 3.7 yards per carry to backs, a 19.4% stuff rate and 0.93 yards before contact per rush—all 10th in the league. It has allowed seven rushing touchdowns to backs, however, ranking 23rd.

Derrick Henry had 60 yards and a touchdown on 13 touches Sunday; a second score was wiped out by a penalty. He has now been held to 60 or fewer total yards in three straight games. Baltimore’s recent game scripts have reduced his share of the work: his 64.3% and 59.1% shares of backfield touches over the past two games are his two lowest of the season. He has received only one fourth-quarter touch across those games, despite 12 backfield opportunities.

The Ravens run on 62.3% of Henry’s snaps, the second-highest rate for any back behind Emanuel Wilson at 63.2%. They may lean on the ground game to protect their quarterback, but Jacksonville is a severe test. The Jaguars allow 3.3 yards per carry to backs, second-best, and a league-low 57.7 rushing yards per game. Henry is averaging only 0.87 yards before contact per rush, 33rd, and remains a touchdown-dependent RB2.

Jacksonville will be without interior run stopper DaVon Hamilton after he suffered a season-ending quad injury Sunday. The Jaguars have allowed 3.6 yards per carry on 48 runs with Hamilton off the field this season; in 2025, they allowed 4.8 on 112 such runs. The past figures suggest the absence could matter, though Henry still faces a line that has created little room. If Baltimore falls behind, Justice Hill may have a role as a receiver after catching four of eight targets for 20 yards Sunday.

Receivers: Jacksonville’s volume is the question

Parker Washington caught one of two targets for 16 yards and added a 10-yard rush Sunday. Lawrence threw only 14 passes and spread them among six players, a reminder that Jacksonville’s blowouts can leave its receivers short of opportunity. Washington has been a top-24 scorer once in his past five games and ranks WR29 in expected points per game over that span. He has topped 64 receiving yards once since Week 2, and three of those five games saw him below a 20% target share with Lawrence playing.

The ceiling remains real: before Sunday, Washington ranked WR6 and WR9 in expected usage in his previous two games, both more competitive situations. He averages 2.27 yards per route run, WR15, and accounts for 24.5% of Jacksonville’s targets and 34.9% of its air yards, both 14th among receivers. Baltimore has allowed 10.3 yards per target to lead wideouts, 30th in the league. Washington is an upside WR2, though the matchup’s likely script keeps him short of a dependable front-end WR1.

Washington’s expected-points profile offers a useful view of the gap between his workload potential and recent results.

Zay Flowers went without a catch on five targets Sunday, the first time that has happened in his career. Jackson’s absence changes the outlook sharply. In 46 routes with Jackson on the field, Flowers was targeted on 43.5% of them and produced 7.67 yards per route and 1.42 fantasy points per route. Across 147 routes without Jackson, his target rate fell to 25.9%, with 1.73 yards and 0.39 fantasy points per route. His average air yards per target also dropped from 10.5 with Jackson to 6.4 without him.

A veteran pocket passer could help stabilize Flowers’ target share, but Baltimore’s current quarterback group leaves him an unstable WR3 this week. Jacksonville has conceded 9.7 yards per target and 14.4 yards per catch to receivers, both among the league’s most generous marks. Flowers has a favorable matchup if he sees enough throws; the problem is projecting those throws.

Jakobi Meyers is the clearest bet among Jacksonville’s other receivers to run routes. He was on the field for 73.7% of Lawrence’s dropbacks Sunday, second among the team’s receivers. Still, Lawrence has targeted him on only 16.7% of his routes, and Meyers has reached the top 50 in scoring three times, with a touchdown driving two of those performances. Treat him as a touchdown-dependent WR4/FLEX.

In Baltimore, Ja’Kobi Lane caught his lone target for 13 yards but ran routes on 67.7% of dropbacks, behind Rashod Bateman’s 83.9%. Lane can be held briefly in deeper formats if the Ravens add a veteran passer, but Thursday’s outlook is touchdown-or-bust WR5.

Jacksonville’s Brian Thomas and Josh Cameron remain in a limited rotation. Thomas caught a 12-yard touchdown on his only reception while appearing on 47.4% of Lawrence’s dropbacks. Cameron had one target and no catch. Travis Hunter ran three routes with Lawrence and failed to catch his only target. All three are touchdown-or-bust choices for single-game DFS.

Tight ends: Strange has efficiency, Andrews lacks yardage

Brenton Strange led Jacksonville with 55 receiving yards on two catches, including a career-long 46-yard catch and run. He has been targeted on 22.2% of his routes, 11th among tight ends, and averages 2.11 yards per route, fourth. His 0.43 fantasy points per route rank ninth. The concern is his limited red-zone role: he has 8.6% of Jacksonville’s red-zone targets, compared with 19.9% outside the red zone. That makes him a higher-end TE2 rather than a dependable scoring bet.

Baltimore’s tight-end coverage offers some upside if Jacksonville has to throw. The Ravens rank 29th in fantasy points allowed per target to tight ends at 2.25, give up 7.8 yards per target, 22nd, and allow a 12.5% touchdown rate, 30th.

Mark Andrews caught three of four targets for 14 yards Sunday and hasn’t exceeded 28 yards in a game since Week 2. Without Jackson, he has a 13.8% target share and averages 0.71 yards per route run. He’s a low-ceiling TE2 while Baltimore sorts out its passing game.

The matchup’s clearest fantasy signal is the gap between Jacksonville’s efficiency and Baltimore’s ability to sustain offense. Lawrence can capitalize on a vulnerable secondary, but his passing volume may fall if the Jaguars take control early. For the Ravens, every projection hinges on whether Fagnano can handle pressure and keep the offense functional.

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