Football Nov 05, 2026

Buccaneers vs. Bears Week 9 Fantasy Preview: Swift’s Volume, Burden’s Early Surge

Stitched by Rich Hribar · 631 reads

Chicago’s run-heavy attack meets Tampa Bay’s strong defense. Swift, Irving and Burden lead the fantasy outlook, while Mayfield’s passing volume is the key unknown.

Buccaneers vs. Bears Week 9 Fantasy Preview: Swift’s Volume, Burden’s Early Surge

Chicago’s ground game is driving both its scoring and its fantasy ceiling, while Tampa Bay arrives with a defense built to make every passing possession difficult. That tension shapes Sunday Night Football: the Bears have scored 17 of their 25 touchdowns on the ground, and the Buccaneers have allowed just 18.9 points per game, fifth fewest. For fantasy managers, the backfields offer the clearest workload signals; the passing options come with more matchup and volume risk.

The Bears are favored by six, with an implied total of 26.25 points against Tampa Bay’s 20.25. Chicago leads the league in time of possession margin at plus-10:53, and Tampa Bay ranks third at plus-4:14. Both teams control games by running the ball and limiting opponents’ opportunities. Chicago averages 71.9 plays per game, most in the league, but allows opponents just 50.9. Tampa Bay’s defense faces only 58.1 plays per game, third fewest.

The teams also rank first and second in rushing-yard differential: Tampa Bay averages 88.6 more rushing yards per game than its opponents, while Chicago averages 64.0 more. The Bears have scored 68% of their touchdowns on the ground, the league’s highest rate. Tampa Bay’s rate is 60%, third highest. That preference has consequences for Caleb Williams, whose efficient recent passing hasn’t yet translated into consistent fantasy spikes.

Quarterbacks: Williams has earned trust; Mayfield needs volume

Caleb Williams

Williams’ 24 completions on 34 attempts for 247 yards and a touchdown against Seattle marked another strong outing. He completed 70.6% of his passes and averaged 7.3 yards per attempt, but finished QB17 in fantasy as Chicago kept scoring on the ground. His completion rate for the season is 70.9%, second in the NFL, and his completion rate over expectation is 7.6%, behind only Joe Burrow.

The improvement under Ben Johnson is showing across the board: Williams is executing the structure of the offense, taking available throws and still creating when a play breaks down. His recent fantasy output has been held back partly by Chicago’s 37.7% pass rate in the red zone, 30th in the league. He ranks QB12 in passing points per dropback since returning, at 0.43, with a 3.9% touchdown rate that ranks 17th.

Chicago has scored 30 points against New England and 34 against Seattle in its last two games, beating what those defenses typically allow. Williams also threw for more yards per attempt against those two top-12 pass defenses than any other quarterback they had faced. Tampa Bay will pose another demanding test: the Buccaneers rank third in passing points allowed at 10.8 per game, with a 62.2% completion rate allowed, 6.5 yards per attempt and a 3.7% touchdown rate. Their 4.4% interception rate is the league’s highest. Joe Burrow, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott each finished QB19 or lower against them.

The matchup calls for a modest adjustment to Williams’ projection, leaving him on the fringe of QB1 territory. He has already faced Minnesota and Seattle, the first- and third-ranked defenses in passing points allowed. His latest outing also featured his fastest time to throw of the season, 2.65 seconds. A quick release could suit this matchup: Tampa Bay opponents average a 2.63-second time to throw and 6.6 air yards per attempt, the league’s seventh-lowest figure.

Tampa Bay has added pressure looks to its defense, sending eight or more defenders to the line on 22.4% of pass plays, second only to Minnesota’s 29.4%. The Buccaneers have used 21 players as pass rushers, most in the league. Their structure differs from Brian Flores’ Minnesota approach, though: Tampa Bay prefers Cover 3 and single-high coverage, and Williams has averaged 8.3 yards per attempt against blitzes paired with single-high looks.

The Buccaneers have blitzed less lately, at 23.7% in Week 7 and 32% last week, their lowest rates of the season. Across the first six games, they blitzed at least 40% of the time against every opponent except Jordan Love. If they stay more conservative, Williams may have room to work underneath. He’s a playable option even with the difficult defensive profile, particularly in a week without many obvious streaming alternatives.

Baker Mayfield

Mayfield’s last two games offer almost no reliable guide to his passing volume. When he returned two weeks ago, Tampa Bay took a 33-6 halftime lead after a defensive touchdown and finished with only 11 pass attempts. Last week’s torrential rain helped limit the team to three attempts and no completions. The Buccaneers’ pass rates in those games landed 29.8% and 37.3% below expectation, conditions unlikely to represent a normal game script.

As six-point road underdogs against a productive Chicago offense, Tampa Bay could need Mayfield to throw more. The risk is that his passing efficiency has been limited: he has completed 61.8% of his attempts, 23rd, for 6.2 yards per attempt, 26th. He profiles as a volatile QB2.

Chicago’s defense can surrender explosive plays, allowing 8.2 yards per attempt, 30th, and 13.1 yards per completion, most in the league. It gave up a 43-yard touchdown on a coverage breakdown last week. Yet the Bears rank fourth in passing success rate allowed at 61.2% and 10th in completion rate at 62.7%. They blitz 33.8% of the time, ninth most, and generate pressure on 48.3% of those blitzes, fourth best. Under pressure, Mayfield has completed only 43.5% of passes for 4.4 yards per attempt.

Chicago’s most recent game with Jeffery Simmons was its best of the season in completion rate allowed, holding opponents to 50% and 5.5 yards per attempt. Sam Darnold still threw two touchdowns and scored 17.5 fantasy points, and the Bears have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games. Mayfield has upside if the Bucs’ pass volume rises, but his floor is difficult to ignore.

Running backs: touch volume gives both starters a path

Bucky Irving

Irving has posted at least 100 rushing yards in three of his last four games, with outings of 154, 106 and 170 yards. He has also received 20 or more touches in each of his last four. That workload and recent production make him an RB1, even if Tampa Bay’s game script may require more passing than the team prefers.

Chicago has been effective at preventing backfield runs from succeeding, with a 67.6% success rate allowed, sixth best, and a first down or touchdown on only 16.2% of those runs, third lowest. But it has allowed a run of at least 10 yards on 10.3% of backfield carries, 22nd. The Bears give up 5.0 yards per touch to running backs, 27th, while allowing only 104.6 total yards per game to them, sixth best. The difference is opportunity: Chicago faces a league-low 20.9 backfield touches per game.

If Tampa Bay falls behind and has to throw, Irving could remain involved. He has been targeted on 27.4% of his routes with Mayfield. The caveat is that Mayfield’s return has coincided with two unusual games in which the Buccaneers barely passed. Irving’s rushing workload is the firmest part of his projection; his receiving ceiling depends on a more conventional game.

D’Andre Swift

Swift’s season-high 29 touches against Seattle produced only 79 yards, or 2.7 yards per touch, but he scored twice. His efficiency has been poor lately: he has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over the past four games, and 53% of his runs have ended at or behind the line of scrimmage, with just 0.58 yards before contact per rush.

The fantasy results remain strong because the Bears keep giving him the ball and the scoring chances. Swift has been an RB1 scorer in four straight games since Kyle Monangai’s injury, scoring seven touchdowns across that stretch while handling 13, 20, 26 and 29 touches. In tighter games over the last two weeks, he has received 92.9% and 84.4% of Chicago’s backfield touches. If Monangai remains out, Swift sits on the RB1/RB2 line as a volume- and touchdown-driven play.

The matchup is formidable. Tampa Bay allows 3.6 yards per carry to running backs, eighth fewest, and has a 69.8% success rate against the run, fourth best. Its 22.1% stuff rate also ranks fourth. The Buccaneers are fourth in points allowed per running back touch at 0.73 and fourth in total yards allowed to backfields at 100.5 per game. Swift’s role is secure; his efficiency may again depend on finding the end zone.

Wide receivers: Chicago’s early scripts create uneven roles

Luther Burden

Burden caught seven of nine targets for 56 yards and a touchdown against Seattle. Since Williams returned, Burden has finished WR14, WR7 and WR8. His production has been especially concentrated early: he leads all wide receivers with 52.5 first-quarter fantasy points, holds a 31.7% first-quarter target share (WR5) and gets a target on 43.2% of his routes in that quarter.

His second-half involvement drops sharply. Burden ranks WR42 in second-half scoring with 31.9 points, has 20.7% of the targets and sees a target on 24% of his routes. He averages 18.4 receiving yards after halftime, 54th among receivers. That pattern fits Chicago’s approach: the Bears have a 51.6% second-half dropback rate, 30th, and use 12 and 13 personnel on 31.7% and 18.5% of second-half plays, respectively, both fourth-highest rates.

Even without Cole Kmet last week, Chicago used 12 personnel on 36.7% of second-half snaps and 13 personnel on 16.7%. Burden has played on only 30.4% of 12-personnel routes and 10.8% of 13-personnel routes, so those formations leave him on the sideline. He remains an upside WR2, with a favorable fit against Tampa Bay’s preference for quick, short throws. On Williams’ throws released within 2.5 seconds, Burden has a team-best 25.5% target share and 2.77 yards per route run.

Rome Odunze

Odunze’s four catches for 87 yards on six targets in Seattle gave him consecutive top-30 fantasy finishes for the first time this season. He still has no touchdowns, but averages 16.7 yards per catch and has 12 receptions of at least 20 yards, fourth most in the league. Among the top 20 players in such catches, only Odunze and KC Concepcion remain without a touchdown.

That explosive profile makes him a boom-or-bust WR3. Tampa Bay’s opponents tend to throw quickly and short, which limits the number of deep chances. The Buccaneers have allowed seven catches to receivers on throws traveling at least 20 air yards, ninth fewest, with two touchdowns. On throws at least 10 yards downfield to receivers, they have allowed a 43.1% catch rate, fourth lowest, and three touchdowns.

Emeka Egbuka

Egbuka returned to full practice Thursday, a positive sign for Sunday. His last three games with Jalon Daniels produced 13, 38 and 48 receiving yards, and 22.4% of his targets this season have been inaccurate, the third-highest rate among pass catchers with more than 25 targets.

Mayfield’s return offers a better ceiling. Egbuka managed 63, 16 and 62 yards in his first three games with Mayfield, but his target share across those outings was 26.7%, 15.4% and 28.6%. More recently, he has received 36% and 39% of Tampa Bay’s targets over two games. If he’s healthy and approaches a 30% share with Mayfield, he belongs in the WR2/WR3 conversation, with room to climb if the passing game finds its rhythm.

Chris Godwin, Ted Hurst, Tez Johnson and Kalif Raymond

Godwin hasn’t finished higher than WR40 this season and is averaging a career-low 9.0 yards per reception. Tampa Bay’s near-absence of passing over the last two weeks makes it hard to count on a sudden ceiling game. He’s a WR4/FLEX option.

Hurst and Johnson split time when Egbuka has played, leaving both outside the dependable volume tier. They’re single-game fantasy options who could benefit from Chicago’s tendency to allow big gains: Hurst averages 16.2 air yards per target, and Johnson 20.1.

Raymond hasn’t delivered a top-48 finish since Week 3 and has just 44 receiving yards over his last five games. His 5.5 air yards per target from Williams point to short routes, but the limited production makes him a low-ceiling WR5/FLEX, best suited to single-game formats.

Tight ends: Loveland’s role is rising

Colston Loveland

Loveland has produced three straight TE1 weeks since Williams returned. Over that span, he owns a position-best 28.9% target share and averages 2.14 yards per route run, ninth among tight ends. The matchup supports continued involvement: Loveland has drawn 25% of Williams’ targets against blitzes, a team high, and 23.1% against Cover 3, also a team high.

Tight ends account for 24.8% of the fantasy points Tampa Bay allows, the fifth-highest share. With the Buccaneers bringing pressure and Williams getting the ball out quickly, Loveland’s recent role has a clear route to continuing. He’s a trust-worthy fantasy starter.

Cade Otton

Otton has topped 38 receiving yards only once and hasn’t finished higher than TE16 in a week. His role leaves little room for a ceiling outcome, making him a low-ceiling TE2 better reserved for single-game formats.