Week 9 NFL Touchdown Picks: Chase, Cook and Smith-Njigba Lead the Calls

Several Week 9 touchdown calls hinge on where the offense is most likely to attack: a backfield with a clear goal-line role, a receiver matched against a coverage he has handled well, or a tight end facing a defense that has struggled to contain the position. The first-touchdown selections also get a lift from players who have already opened games with a score this season.

Here are the picks and the reasoning behind them. The listed prices are the source’s reported odds. Find NFL player prop odds.

Jacksonville–Baltimore and Cincinnati–Atlanta

Jaguars vs. Ravens

First touchdown: Parker Washington, Jaguars (+675). Jacksonville may have reason to lean on its backfield, with Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez on the injury report. But if the Jaguars are trying to build a lead against a Ravens team led by Joe Fagnano, Washington is the passing-game focal point. Among Jacksonville players with at least 40 routes, he leads in target share (22.9%), target rate per route (26%), first-read rate (26.6%), air-yard share (35.9%), receiving yards per game (61.7), yards per route run (2.47) and receiving touchdowns (4). He’s also tied for the team lead with seven red-zone targets. Washington has scored the game’s first touchdown twice this season.

Anytime touchdown: Brenton Strange, Jaguars (+235). Strange offers a second Jacksonville receiving option, ranking second among teammates with at least 40 routes in target share (17.4%), target rate per route (24%), first-read rate (18.9%), receiving yards per game (47.7) and yards per route run (2.26). He leads the team with four receptions per game and has two touchdown catches. Baltimore has allowed six receiving touchdowns to tight ends, tied for the fourth-most, and has given up a touchdown to the position in three of its last four games.

Bengals vs. Falcons

First touchdown: Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals (+700). Tee Higgins shares the team lead in target share at 22.8%, and tops Cincinnati in air-yard share (40.5%), receiving yards per game (103.7) and yards per route run (2.98). Chase’s edge for this pick is his work near the goal line: he leads the Bengals with 10 red-zone targets and seven end-zone targets, turning five end-zone targets into touchdowns. He’s tied for the team lead with six receiving scores.

Anytime touchdown: Kyle Pitts, Falcons (+260). Cincinnati has allowed tight ends 9.6 yards per target, the most in the league, and 88.7 receiving yards per game, the second-most. The Bengals haven’t conceded a touchdown to the position, but the yardage allowed points to a vulnerable matchup. Across Michael Penix’s six starts, Pitts leads Atlanta with six red-zone targets, four receiving touchdowns and 2.6 expected receiving touchdowns.

Dallas–Indianapolis and Cleveland–New Orleans

Cowboys at Colts

First touchdown: Javonte Williams, Cowboys (+400). Indianapolis gave up 158 rushing yards, 5.6 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns to Jacksonville’s running backs in its first game after trading DeForest Buckner. Those backs also combined for three catches, 72 yards and a receiving score. Williams has the workload to exploit that softness: he has taken 134 of Dallas’s 167 backfield carries (80.2%), including all 20 carries from inside the five-yard line and 20 of the team’s 22 rushes from that range. He has eight rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown. Williams has opened a game with a score twice this season and has scored Dallas’s first touchdown four times.

Anytime touchdown: Tyler Warren, Colts (+215). Warren has five red-zone targets, shares the team lead with two end-zone targets and leads Indianapolis with two receiving touchdowns, despite missing two games. He can also score as a runner: he has three carries this season, including a touchdown from the one-yard line.

Browns at Saints

First touchdown: Harold Fannin, Browns (+1100). Fannin is coming off his best game of the season: 12 targets, a 29.3% target share, a 31% target rate per route, a 37.5% first-read rate, a 35.7% air-yard share, 10 catches and 154 receiving yards. He didn’t score, but did receive an end-zone target. Fannin has three touchdowns this year. His outlook depends partly on Cleveland’s quarterback: if Deshaun Watson clears concussion protocol, Fannin remains a strong option; if Shedeur Sanders starts, the connection could make him even more appealing. In 289 snaps with Sanders since last season, Fannin has a 24.1% target share, a 29% target rate per route and 2.10 yards per route run, compared with 19.6%, 22% and 1.67 across 876 snaps without him.

Anytime touchdown: Chris Olave, Saints (+160). Cleveland has used single-high coverage at a league-high 72.0% rate since Week 5. Olave has produced a 30% target rate per route and 3.03 yards per route run on 102 routes against that coverage this season. Since last season, his marks against single-high are 31% and 2.62 across 365 routes.

New York–Kansas City and Detroit–Miami

Jets at Chiefs

First touchdown: Kenneth Walker, Chiefs (+350). Walker went without a score in the past two weeks, but has eight touchdowns in seven games. Kansas City has given him all 13 of its carries from inside the five-yard line, and he has been the game’s first scorer twice. The Jets have held running backs to 3.99 yards per carry, yet allow 104.8 rushing yards and 26.9 receiving yards per game to the position, along with five rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns.

Anytime touchdown: Omar Cooper, Jets (+145). Garrett Wilson entered concussion protocol on Wednesday, leaving Cooper with a chance to see more targets. Cooper had no targets last week, but ran routes on 74.3% of New York’s dropbacks, second only to Wilson’s 97.1%. The rookie had 100-plus receiving yards in both Week 6 and Week 7, scoring in each game. One quiet outing doesn’t erase that production if his role grows.

Lions at Dolphins

First touchdown: Sam LaPorta, Lions (+1100). Miami has allowed tight ends 8.94 yards per target, the fifth-highest figure, and six receiving touchdowns. LaPorta has been quiet lately, falling short of 35 receiving yards in each of the past two games and totaling four catches for 51 yards without a score. Before that, he scored in three of four games, with 22 catches, 268 yards, six red-zone targets, four end-zone targets and three touchdowns.

Anytime touchdown: Caleb Douglas, Dolphins (+290). Douglas has two receiving touchdowns, tied for Miami’s team lead, despite missing three games. Since the Week 6 bye, he leads the Dolphins in route participation at 75.4%. Detroit has used single-high coverage at a 61.7% rate since Week 5; Douglas has posted a 23% target rate per route and 2.00 yards per route run on 53 routes against it this season.

Denver–Carolina and the New York teams

Broncos at Panthers

First touchdown: Jonah Coleman, Broncos (+575). Coleman handled every second-half backfield touch for Denver last week. He was stopped on his first three attempts from inside the five-yard line against Kansas City, then scored the game-winning touchdown on his fourth try. Carolina has allowed running backs 115.6 rushing yards and 27.9 receiving yards per game, plus 10 rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown in seven games.

Anytime touchdown: Jalen Coker, Panthers (+210). Coker shares Carolina’s lead with three receiving touchdowns and six red-zone targets. He has lined up in the slot on 46.2% of snaps, compared with 28.2% for Tetairoa McMillan. With McMillan more likely to draw Patrick Surtain’s coverage, Coker may find the more favorable path to a score.

Giants at Eagles

First touchdown: Dallas Goedert, Eagles (+1500). Philadelphia named Joe Milton its starting quarterback on Wednesday. Milton’s largest stretch of playing time came in Week 18 of his rookie season in 2024, when he played 95% of New England’s snaps and dropped back 30 times. Austin Hooper drew a 19.2% target share and a 23% target rate per route on Milton’s snaps. Goedert could become an attractive read for Milton and may be Philadelphia’s best available pass-catching option. He has scored the first touchdown once this season.

Anytime touchdown: Malik Nabers, Giants (+180). In 74 plays with J.J. McCarthy this season, Nabers has a 32.6% target share, a 30% target rate per route and 4.48 yards per route run. He hasn’t scored with McCarthy yet. Philadelphia has allowed 10 touchdowns to wide receivers and has given up at least one receiving score to a wideout in five of eight games.

Houston–Los Angeles and the Bay Area

Texans at Chargers

First touchdown: Marvin Harrison Jr., Texans (+1450). Houston’s bye offered a chance to work Harrison into the offense. In two games with the Texans, he has had a 24.6% route participation rate, two red-zone targets and a touchdown on an end-zone target.

Anytime touchdown: Nico Collins, Texans (+155). Collins shares the team lead with four end-zone targets and three receiving touchdowns, despite missing two games. The Chargers have allowed wide receivers 8.76 yards per target, tied for 20th, and six receiving touchdowns, tied for 12th, across seven games.

Raiders at 49ers

First touchdown: Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (+360). Las Vegas ranks last in rushing yards allowed per game (129.5) and yards per carry allowed to running backs (5.31). The Raiders have also allowed 30 completions on 31 targets to the position and eight running-back touchdowns. McCaffrey has eight touchdowns this season, including two as the game’s first scorer.

Anytime touchdown: Tre Tucker, Raiders (+310). Tucker had no catch on his only target last week, and a 63.0% route participation rate left room for a bigger role. His season production still stands out: he ranks second on the Raiders in air-yard share (28.0%), receiving yards per game (59.3) and receiving touchdowns (4). He has six red-zone targets, four end-zone targets and three touchdown catches on end-zone targets.

Packers at Patriots

First touchdown: Eli Raridon, Patriots (+1400). Raridon has played a route on 36.6% of New England’s dropbacks, but Drake Maye has found him in scoring territory: four red-zone targets, three end-zone targets and two receiving touchdowns. Hunter Henry left last week’s game early with a foot injury and did not practice to open the week. Raridon’s case doesn’t depend on Henry sitting out, though Henry’s absence would strengthen it.

Anytime touchdown: Matthew Golden, Packers (+185). Golden has scored four receiving touchdowns, including two as the game’s first scorer. He leads Green Bay in target share (25.3%), first-read rate (29.1%), air-yard share (40.8%), red-zone targets (14) and end-zone targets (10).

Seattle–Arizona, Chicago–Tampa Bay and Buffalo–Minnesota

Cardinals at Seahawks

First touchdown: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks (+475). Drew Lock is set to start at quarterback, and Smith-Njigba’s production has held up across Seattle’s quarterback changes. He has been especially productive with Lock: a 43.8% target share, a 48% target rate per route and 6.00 yards per route run on 84 plays. Smith-Njigba has nine touchdowns this year, including two game-opening scores and five as Seattle’s first scorer.

Anytime touchdown: Trey McBride, Cardinals (+210). McBride connected quickly with Gardner Minshew last week, producing a 30.0% target share, a 30% target rate per route and 2.60 yards per route run on 31 plays. Seattle is a tough matchup, but its coverage mix may suit him. Since Week 5, the Seahawks have played zone 86.0% of the time and two-high coverage 61.0% of the time, including Cover 6 at a 33.1% rate. This season, McBride has a 28% target rate per route and 2.11 yards per route run against zone, and a 32% rate and 2.11 yards per route run against two-high. Since last year, he has a 27.7% target share, a 25% target rate per route and a 26.2% air-yard share on 111 routes against Cover 6.

Buccaneers at Bears

First touchdown: Luther Burden, Bears (+950). Burden has opened a game with a touchdown twice. Tampa Bay has played Cover 3 at a 50.9% rate over its past four games, and Burden has excelled against that look. On 78 routes against Cover 3 this season, he leads Chicago with a 25.8% target share, a 32% target rate per route, 18 receptions and six red-zone targets.

Anytime touchdown: Rome Odunze, Bears (+180). Odunze also has strong numbers against Cover 3. On 89 routes, he leads Chicago with a 43.1% air-yard share, 235 receiving yards and 2.64 yards per route run against the coverage. Tampa Bay’s recent defensive results have come against Bryce Young and Michael Penix in a monsoon; Caleb Williams presents a different test.

Bills at Vikings

First touchdown: James Cook, Bills (+575). Detroit’s running backs gained 218 yards at 6.41 per carry and scored once against Minnesota. Buffalo has reason to keep Cook involved. Among 33 running backs with at least 60 carries, Cook ranks third in rushing yards per game (101.0), sixth in yards per carry (5.12), first in yards before contact per attempt (3.43), second in explosive-run rate (18.5%), fifth in success rate and fourth in rushing yards over expectation per game (19.6). He averages 1.00 rushing touchdowns per game, tied for fourth, and has scored in seven straight games.

Anytime touchdown: T.J. Hockenson, Vikings (+250). Buffalo has allowed one touchdown to tight ends, but ranks 22nd in yards allowed per target to the position (8.10). Hockenson is putting together a bounce-back season: in seven games he has a 27% target rate per route, 4.4 catches and 42.1 receiving yards per game, 2.22 yards per route run and three touchdowns. He has seven red-zone targets and three end-zone targets.

Team trends through Week 8

The Rams and Packers have each scored the first touchdown in seven of eight games, an 88% rate. San Francisco and Jacksonville are next at six first scores in seven games (86%). Indianapolis is at 75% after opening six of eight games with a touchdown. At the other end, the Chargers have done so once in seven games (14%), while Cleveland has opened one of eight (12%). Buffalo, Detroit, New Orleans, Washington and Minnesota are each at two first touchdowns in seven games (29%).

Among this week’s featured teams, Chicago, Las Vegas and New England each opened five of eight games with a score (62%). Carolina, Kansas City and Houston are at four of seven (57%); Dallas and Philadelphia are at four of eight (50%). Cincinnati is at three of seven (43%), while Miami, Seattle, Atlanta, Denver, Arizona and the Jets are between 38% and 43% based on their listed records.

First-touchdown scorers to watch

Through Week 8, Chuba Hubbard, Jonathan Taylor and Christian Watson lead the listed players with three game-opening touchdowns apiece. Several Week 9 picks are already among the frequent early scorers: Javonte Williams has opened two games, as have Kenneth Walker, Christian McCaffrey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Matthew Golden, Parker Washington and Luther Burden. James Cook’s seven-game scoring streak gives him a different kind of momentum entering Buffalo’s matchup.

First-touchdown picks require identifying the player who scores the game’s opening touchdown. Anytime picks call for a player to score at any point. In either case, the scorer is the player carrying the ball across the goal line or catching the touchdown pass, not the quarterback who throws it. The Week 9 calls lean on roles near the end zone, recent usage and how each opponent has defended the relevant position.

Explore the football prop packages. For more Week 9 coverage, see ATS and game total picks, referee assignments and penalty trends, first and anytime touchdown picks, same-game picks, weather analysis, NFL picks, team totals, injury updates, matchup data and fantasy rankings.