NFL Week 9 Weather: Rain and Gusts Put Seattle in Focus
Most games face light winds, but rain and 24 mph gusts could shape Arizona–Seattle. Historical scoring and passing data show where weather may matter.
Seattle is the clearest weather watch for Week 9: Arizona’s visit to Lumen Field comes with rain, sustained wind of 12 mph and gusts reaching 24 mph. The forecast assigns that game a moderate impact score, while most outdoor matchups sit in the negligible or minor range. The difference matters because wind and rain can change the shape of an offense, especially its passing game, even when the forecast doesn’t point to severe conditions.
Seattle stands apart from a mostly quiet slate
The published forecast, last updated Tuesday, November 3 at 2:59 a.m. Eastern, lists 16 games, including a Monday night matchup from Week 8. For the Week 9 slate, Arizona at Seattle is the only game rated 3 of 5, or moderate. At Lumen Field, the forecast calls for 56°F, 12 mph wind, 24 mph gusts and rain. The article’s historical sample is too small to draw a useful venue comparison for winds of 12–14 mph: it includes 18 games. Across the league, that wind band has produced an under rate of 59%.
Three games receive a 2 of 5, minor rating. The Giants visit Philadelphia with temperatures near 60°F, 8 mph wind and gusts of 17 mph. At Lincoln Financial Field, games with wind of 8–11 mph have gone under 59% of the time across 39 games; the league-wide under rate for that band is 55%. The Rams face Washington under a similar forecast—60°F, 9 mph wind and 17 mph gusts. Northwest Stadium’s comparable sample shows an under rate of 59% over 49 games.
Green Bay’s trip to New England also carries a minor rating. Gillette Stadium is forecast at 57°F with 7 mph sustained wind and gusts of 19 mph. In 44 games with gusts above 18 mph alongside otherwise light wind, totals have gone under 61% of the time. The league-wide under rate cited for the comparison is 54%.
Light winds leave most outdoor games near baseline
The other scored outdoor games are rated 1 of 5, negligible. Jacksonville visits Baltimore on Thursday night, with a forecast of 67°F, 3 mph wind, gusts of 8 mph and a 39% chance of precipitation. At M&T Bank Stadium, games with winds below 8 mph have gone over 52% of the time in an 87-game sample, matching the league-wide over rate reported for that range.
Sunday’s Jets–Chiefs game in Kansas City is forecast at 61°F, with 5 mph wind and 12 mph gusts. The stadium’s under-8-mph sample has gone over 46% of the time across 74 games. Detroit–Miami looks warmer: Hard Rock Stadium is forecast at 83°F, 6 mph wind and gusts of 12 mph. In 72 comparable games there, the over rate is 64%.
Denver at Carolina is set for 65°F, 4 mph wind and gusts of 12 mph. Bank of America Stadium’s under-8-mph sample has gone over 44% of the time in 120 games. Las Vegas at San Francisco carries a forecast of 71°F and 4 mph wind; Levi’s Stadium has gone over 41% of the time in 39 games in that wind range. Tampa Bay at Chicago is forecast at 50°F, 7 mph wind and gusts of 13 mph. At Soldier Field, the over rate is 53% across 49 games with wind below 8 mph.
Those venue figures describe past results, not a forecast of what a particular game will produce. They also vary sharply by stadium: the figures for Miami and Carolina, for example, point in different directions despite both falling in the same low-wind category.
Roof conditions remove weather from several matchups
Three listed games have roof conditions that limit or remove exposure to the weather. Cleveland at New Orleans is indoors at the Caesars Superdome, and the table marks weather as not a factor. Houston at the Los Angeles Chargers is at SoFi Stadium, under a fixed roof that keeps precipitation off the field.
Cincinnati at Atlanta is listed at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, with a retractable roof. The forecast shows 54°F, 2 mph wind, gusts of 9 mph and a 74% chance of precipitation, but the table marks the roof rather than assigning a weather score. Dallas at Indianapolis is also listed under a retractable roof at Lucas Oil Stadium; the forecast is 56°F with 8 mph wind and gusts of 18 mph. Buffalo at Minnesota is indoors at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Why the wind bands matter
The article’s broad historical sample finds that outdoor games with kickoff wind below 8 mph have gone over 52.3% of the time across 2,345 games. The baseline for all outdoor games is 48.6%. Once winds reach 8–11 mph, the pattern shifts: games in that band have gone under 55% of the time in a 1,194-game sample. At 12–14 mph, the under rate rises to 59% across 499 games.
Stronger wind doesn’t produce a simple straight line. Games in the 15–19 mph band have a more mixed history, depending on how and when wind is measured. The source points to one possible explanation: totals are often set lower when forecasts call for stronger wind. The average total for games forecast in that band is roughly 1.5 points below the average for forecasted calm games.
Passing numbers show a similar, though uneven, relationship. Teams average 227 passing yards and 7.3 yards per attempt when wind is 0–7 mph. In the 8–11 mph band, those figures fall to 218 yards and 7.1 yards per attempt; at 12–14 mph, they are 208 yards and 6.9 yards per attempt. The 15–19 mph group averages 211 yards and 6.8 yards per attempt, while games at 20 mph or higher average 206 yards and 7.0 yards per attempt. Completions of 25 or more yards account for 5.6% in the calmest band, compared with 5.2% at 8–11 mph, 5.0% at 12–14 mph, 4.9% at 15–19 mph and 5.0% at 20 mph or more.
Rain could further constrain the passing game
Since 2020, teams playing in rain have averaged 15% fewer passing yards than the stated baseline. Games with measurable rain at kickoff have gone under 57.4% of the time across 343 games. That makes the conditions in Seattle notable: Arizona’s game combines rain with the week’s highest listed sustained wind and strongest gusts among the scored outdoor matchups.
The Weather Impact Score combines sustained wind, gusts in otherwise calm conditions, precipitation and, to a smaller degree, temperature on a 1-to-5 scale. Its purpose is to indicate how much conditions may alter play; stadium histories offer reference points rather than predictions. With most of the slate forecast for light wind and three games sheltered by roofs, the practical focus is on how Seattle’s rain and gusts affect passing, and whether the minor wind concerns in Philadelphia, Washington and New England become visible once play begins.
Weather analysis provided by weatherqb.com.
